The EU and Geopolitics – a brave new world?

The European Union (EU) stands at a critical crossroads as it faces an evolving set of geopolitical and economic challenges. These challenges, driven by the war in Ukraine, deglobalisation, the resurgence of protectionist policies, and the long-term impact of global health crises, have tested the resilience of the EU's existing frameworks and policies. In this context, a reassessment of the EU's economic, trade, monetary, and fiscal policies is imperative to ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness in an increasingly complex global environment. 

This research project explores the future trajectory of EU policies, focusing on how the European Monetary Union (EMU), the EU treaties, and associated policy instruments can be adapted to address these pressing challenges. By critically analysing the structural and strategic limitations of the current frameworks, the study aims to propose innovative solutions that align with the Union’s long-term goals of economic stability, cohesion, and global competitiveness. 

One key area of focus is the impact of the war in Ukraine on the EU’s economic and trade policies. The conflict has underscored the vulnerabilities of the EU's energy supply chains, trade networks, and defence industries, necessitating a more cohesive approach to strategic autonomy. The research will investigate how the EU can recalibrate its trade policies to reduce dependency on external powers, particularly in critical sectors, while fostering sustainable economic partnerships within and beyond its borders. 

Deglobalisation and the resurgence of protectionism present another significant challenge. The study will examine how the EU can balance its commitment to free trade with the need to safeguard its economic interests in a more fragmented global economy. It will explore the role of EU treaties and regulations in promoting a more resilient internal market, fostering innovation, and supporting fair competition. 

In the realm of monetary and fiscal policy, the project will evaluate the efficacy of the EMU in responding to current economic pressures, such as inflationary trends, fluctuating exchange rates, and public debt management. Special attention will be given to the EU’s fiscal framework, including the Stability and Growth Pact, to determine whether existing mechanisms are adequate or if reforms are needed to enhance economic governance and support member states in times of crisis. 

Additionally, the research will address how the EU can integrate lessons learned from recent health crises into its long-term economic and fiscal strategies. This includes examining the potential for increased investment in public health infrastructure, research, and innovation, as well as fostering greater coordination between member states in crisis management. 

By combining policy analysis, legal evaluation, and economic modelling, this project seeks to contribute to the development of a comprehensive roadmap for the EU’s future policies. The findings will aim to inform policymakers, stakeholders, and academics about the necessary steps to enhance the EU’s strategic capacity to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Ultimately, the research aspires to strengthen the EU’s role as a global leader, capable of promoting stability, prosperity, and sustainability both within its borders and across the international stage.

Project Team

Prof, Dr. Nazaré da Costa Cabral

Prof. Dr. Nuno Cunha Rodrigues

Prof. Dr. José Renato Gonçalves

Duration: 2024-2028

Project ongoing